It's a new year and all the investment results are in. I keep seeing
30+ percentage point increases for several assets classes and mutual
funds for the year just past. You probably do too. Now everyone is
wondering why their accounts didn't go up 30 percent and why some of the
funds, namely bond funds, went down in value.
Attention: An account or total holdings is NOT an asset class. That's
all your eggs in one basket. Today's big winner is liable to become a
big loser in a correction mode.
Bonds and bond funds got repriced lower by the market last year just
like houses did a few years ago. Everyday, custodians must mark
securities as if they were sold at the end of the day, what price would
they fetch.
When interest rates rise, then the value of the bond or bond funds
currently held are not worth as much to a buyer since new bonds just
being issued pay more that the bonds or bond funds you hold that feature
a lower interest rate. I know that's a long sentence. Sorry.
The same holds true for other asset classes or mutual funds that weren't
as popular last year. Gold funds, mining funds, energy funds didn't do
as well and were sometimes worth less at the end of the year.
My old boss, Ken Fisher, said it best: If investors want more of a stock
(mutual fund) then the price goes up. If they want less of a stock or
mutual fund, then the price goes down. Investors have alternatives to
where their money is currently deployed.
Remember the sage adage, "Buy low, sell high"? Well now might be the
time to implement by re-balancing. I know its hard to sell last year's
winner since we assume it will continue to go up, and buy last year's
loser assuming it will go down some more. Both opinions could be
correct.
However, over time, it appears that the market is self correcting and
usually does it at some surprise point no one can predict in advance.
Re-balancing to a target percentage has proved to be soundest strategy
over longer periods of time, say five to ten years.
If you'd like to read up more on this philosophy, then we recommend
Charles Ellis' "Winning the Loser's Game" 6th edition, and William
Bernstein's "The Four Pillars of Investing" second edition.
So be happy that a lot of your holdings went way up last year and that
you are ahead of your target percentages for the past five years. Don't
dwell on the losers so much that you miss an opportunity to dollar cost
average a bargain if it still is a viable asset class.
Good luck. We all will need it this year.
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Thoughts, ideas, suggestions and education from financial adviser Jim Ludwick, Founder of MainStreet Financial Planning, Inc. of Odenton, MD; Washington, DC; New York City, and Santa Barbara, CA
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
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